‘A Miscalculation’: The Way the Reform UK Juggernaut Backfired in a Wales Special Election.

Yuliia Bond balances dual employment, raises two children, and is studying at university. This past fall, she made time to challenge Reform UK when it sought to secure the Caerphilly byelection.

Bond, a Ukrainian refugee who has made a home in south Wales, said she could not remain silent as Reform tried to win the seat in the Senedd, the Welsh parliament.

“Members of our Ukrainian community spoke up,” Bond commented. “We confronted the disinformation because we didn’t want our neighbours from being deceived into feeling anger towards us. I didn’t want people becoming hostile to us because of falsehoods. So I voiced my concerns and others did, too.

“Reform UK tried to generate panic and hate with strategies used not only in the UK, but by far-right political parties across Europe and across the world. The messages they used in Caerphilly didn’t feel local. They felt borrowed – as if someone copied a script from another country and posted it through our doors.”

A Confident Campaign Faces Grassroots Resistance

The party, associated with Nigel Farage, was confident it could claim victory in the byelection, especially as Labour, the dominant party in Wales for a century, appears to be in freefall. An vigorous campaign by the Welsh nationalists, Plaid Cymru – and individuals such as Bond – successfully blocked the rightwing party.

“Their greatest mistake was assuming that people here have little independent thought,” Bond said. “They thought nobody would check the facts. They believed that refugees are not just vulnerable, but somehow stupid. That is not true. We may have fled a war, but we are not naive. We comprehend policies.”

One of Reform’s central claims was that the Welsh government’s nation of sanctuary scheme showed both it and Plaid supported a “mass immigration agenda” and that “asylum seekers” were receiving “special privileges”. This assertion was unfounded – over 80% of the nation of sanctuary funds had been spent on supporting Ukrainian refugees.

Bond noted: “When I read the campaign literature, all I could see was a blatant attempt to divide people, to scapegoat a small group, and stoke hate in a place that had been hospitable to us.

“It didn’t work in Caerphilly because the Ukrainian community and refugees from different backgrounds are not outsiders. We are part of the community. People know us.

“They see us at school gates, in shops, at work, giving our time. They know what we add. The picture in the leaflet simply didn’t match reality. Most residents could sense that something was off. It felt like deception, not truth.”

The Aftermath and Enduring Lessons

Bond was interviewed in the “gratitude orchard” in Caerphilly, planted by members of the Ukrainian community as a thank-you for the warm welcome they have received.

She said the arrival of Reform had put pressure on Ukrainian people in the area. “Vulnerable people should not have to carry this weight. Yet, during the election, we had to speak out first. Only later did backing come – from local residents, politicians from different parties, and local media.”

There are full Senedd elections in May when Reform has hopes of the leading party in Wales.

Bond said people campaigning against Reform in Wales in May and in other elections across the UK must challenge the party’s messages quickly and with certainty.

“As a Ukrainian, I know how dangerous disinformation can be. The war in Ukraine did not start with weapons. It started with false narratives, biased information and lies that paved the way for violence.
“Disinformation must be challenged promptly, strongly and unambiguously, because hate spreads faster than facts. The two months of that byelection were truly exhausting. We just had to get through it. But we survived together, and that is why the campaign of division was unsuccessful in Caerphilly.”

The Successful Campaign’s Viewpoint

For Lindsay Whittle, the victorious Plaid candidate, the aftermath the byelection was a whirlwind. Attention from the public was immense.

Whittle said both Reform campaigners and their opponents had believed the party might sweep all before them. She said: “The assumption was that they’d spend obscene amounts of money and beat us.”

So how did they stop the political force? One reason, Whittle believes, is that Plaid ran an positive, optimistic campaign. “Avoid attacking anyone personally because people dislike that. Keep the message constructive. Try and bring together people.

“People in Caerphilly have friends of different nationalities and they disapprove of people threatening their friends. Voters understand that without certain people coming to this country, you’re not going to have an NHS or social care. I think Reform misjudged the people of Caerphilly.”

While Whittle made the front pages, an intense local campaign was under way in the background. Committed party members canvassed at thousands of doors.

“We think it was the crucial byelection we’ve ever fought,” one campaigner said. The victory was attributed to good policies – and people who are passionate about them passionately.

Local Insights and Academic Analysis

A local editor was surprised at how polarising the campaign was. “We had communities clashing with each other, campaign posters removed, heated debates online. I grew up in this area and I know everyone’s kind so to see that side come out was a surprise.”

The decisive moment is believed to have been a televised debate when an audience member confronted the Reform candidate, stating that people with family members not born in the UK did not feel welcome since Reform had arrived.

“That was someone from our community who had a multi-ethnic family clearly explaining the impact all this language had,” the editor said. “Caerphilly may not be the most multicultural of places but we’ve always welcomed people from overseas. That was the line in the sand.”

A politics lecturer and native of the area provided a particular perspective on the byelection.

He said Plaid was extremely successful in presenting the election as a direct contest between two parties – but this will be harder at the Senedd elections in May when a new proportional system is introduced.

“It tended to be somewhat ill-informed or, at times, patronising. But Caerphilly isn’t some post-industrial wasteland uncritically accepting whatever political winds blow from across the border – it has its own political traditions and, like Wales more broadly, it has its own dynamics and can’t simply be interpreted through the perspective of what is happening in England. It was gratifying to see my home town confound those lazy assumptions.”
Jeremy Zimmerman
Jeremy Zimmerman

A Berlin-based software engineer specializing in AI applications and modern web frameworks, with a passion for open-source projects.